Data-Driven Real Estate Investing
"The best investments aren’t found where everyone is rushing in—they’re in the undervalued markets that quietly build wealth over time."
- Stefan Tsvetkov
Episode Summary
When you look at the current housing landscape, it’s tempting to follow the herd. Western and Southern states have seen rapid price growth in recent years, driven by inflation and the “buy hard assets” narrative.
But chasing hype is dangerous. What you need is a data-driven approach—and that’s where smart investors get ahead.
Recently, I spoke with Stefan Svetkoff, founder of Realty Quant, who has built one of the most robust valuation models in the industry. His company tracks over 3,000 U.S. counties using key fundamentals: income, population, and housing supply.
The insights he shared may change the way you look at real estate investing.
What the Data Shows
Overvalued markets (mainly in the West and South) will decline slowly over the next four years.
Undervalued markets (Midwest, Northeast, and selected Southern areas) are set for stronger appreciation and lower recession risk.
Inflation-driven “hard asset” buying created bubbles in certain regions that are unsustainable.
True long-term growth comes from markets aligned with fundamentals—not hype.
Why Undervalued Markets Matter
Here’s why investors should pay attention:
Sustainability: Prices are supported by income levels and job growth, not just speculation.
Recession resistance: Undervalued regions have historically performed better when the economy slows.
Predictable appreciation: Growth may not be flashy, but it compounds over time.
How to Apply This as an Investor
Stop chasing “hot” headlines. Just because a market is popular doesn’t mean it’s profitable.
Follow the fundamentals. Look for counties where income growth and population trends align with housing demand.
Think long-term wealth, not quick wins. Midwest and Northeast properties may not double overnight, but they create stability.
Outcome: What This Means for You
If you want Consistent and Predictable Income (what I call No Broke Months), your path is simple:
Invest where data supports demand.
Focus on undervalued regions ready for steady appreciation.
Build a portfolio that outlasts hype cycles and survives market corrections.
In other words: the investors who align with fundamentals today will be the ones celebrating appreciation tomorrow.
